February 13, 2008

On Democratic Race.

Almost everyone now agrees that Obama has the delegate lead, even counting the superdelegates. According to AP, Obama has a 25 delegate lead. RealClearPolitics has him lead by 41. CNN says he leads by 42. And all of these agree that Clinton leads in superdelegates. Among pledged delegates, Obama leads by more than 100. I believe that as we go forward with the race and Obama extends his lead among elected delegates, more and more superdelegates will switch to him. For example, a former Clinton man in Ohio did just that today.

Some of his Obama's victories yesterday were remarkable. Clinton campaign lead in Virginia for a long time and even has its national headquarters in Virginia. For her to lose Virginia by almost 30 points is unbelievable. Except among White women, Obama beat her in every other demographic. He even lead among Latinos.

Some people are comparing Clinton to Guiliani because she is putting everything in Ohio and Texas. Given Obama's string of massive victories, she would need to win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania by huge margins. I believe that even simple victories there are not guaranteed. Obama will have massive financial and momentum advantage coming out of February.


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